Election Results Are Predictable After All...

Late last spring, while reading a piece based on predictions of what Google's initial public offering would eventually be, I became intrigued about the nature of predictive markets which allow participants to bet the chances that some event will occur. Such markets have been shown to make predictions more accurately than polling or expert forecasts. I kept a copy of that piece, in part, because the best-known of those markets, the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) run by the University of...

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